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Start the Trade War Without Me…
The September Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index came in at 59.8, lower than August’s 61.3 and below the 59.9 forecast. But that’s still a strong number. Along with positive...
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The Fed Taketh Away… And It’s Not Just Rates
Over the past month the 10-year Treasury bond yield has jumped from under 3.00% to 3.23%, sending tremors through the equity markets. By now you’ve heard/read/thought about the usual suspects. As...
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Yields Explode, Jobs Don’t
It was inevitable. And yet the market is struggling to digest it, and the mainstream financial media is grasping for stories to explain it. “Normalization” is a smooth-sounding word. But it happens...
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Will the Fed Read the Data?
Things have changed. What was well in the green yesterday was back in the red today… And the Dow Jones Industrial Average has already clawed back most of the more than 200 points it was down again in...
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Inflation Chills, GDP Thrills…
Those of you with kids and grandkids are probably all set for all sort of “trick-or-treat” adventures tonight… That is, if you still have that kind of patience after trying to make sense of this all...
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This Calm Shall Pass, Too
Equity futures buckled a bit after the first congressional race was called for the Democrats – early, and with a wide margin that maybe said this “blue wave” was real. As more results came in, futures...
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Laugh… Cry… Profit Your Way to “Normal”
“So, ‘Count’ and ‘Recount’ are sitting at a bar in Florida…” By now, of course, that joke really needs no punch line. Ballots in the Sunshine State – and neighboring Georgia, too – are still being...
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Disagreeing the Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Everybody wants to know what the Fed plans to do with its future rate hikes… Today I’ll give you some clues. The Fed’s monetary policy is based on two things: There congressional mandate to provide for...
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Gov’t Shutdown, Trade War, and the Market
Deal or No Deal? That is the billion-dollar question on both sides of the Atlantic. Despite what we’ve been led to believe, the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is not a benevolent government...
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What Is the Fed Thinking?
So, the Fed caved on Thursday, January 31, 2019. But did they really? Yes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments yesterday may have pleased the Donald. But they have good reason to “cave.” And I explain...
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Stephen Moore: The Fed’s New Bucking Bull
Last weekend I went to a local rodeo with my wife and parents. Before the teen bull riding competition started, an older gentleman next to me asked to open the screw top on his beer. He told me that 10...
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Get In the Holiday Spirit
I peruse at least two newspapers, three blogs, and one financial news program before breakfast. Once I get the official workday underway, I dive deeper into research on the Fed, consumer spending, or...
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The Fed’s Big, Red Flag
I knew this repo crisis would require more injections, but it wasn’t easy to get clear data on just how many it would take. I was trying to identify how much money has gone into propping up the repo or...
View ArticleThe Trump/Powell No-Love Fest
Maybe it’s like the movies, where bickering parents stick it out for the kids. Or maybe both of them are simply comfortable in their positions of power, free to do what they want in their respective...
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It’s Repo Madness
Heard any good news about global growth, earnrnings forecasts, Trump’s impeachment, the China trade impasse, or American relations with Iran? No need when the Fed is pumping money into the financial...
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Eyes on the Fed
This week, I want to keep talking about the most important thing that’s been happening since mid-September of 2019: the way the Fed has had to step and combat the repo crisis, which came in directly...
View ArticleThe One Thing
In the 1991 movie City Slickers, Curly (Jack Palance) gives Mitch (Billy Crystal) a gift. Curly tells Mitch the secret of life. Curly tells him that the secret to living is, “One thing, just one thing....
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Propping Up the Economy
You know the saying: There’s more than one way to skin a cat. Well, in the financial world, it’s important to remember that there’s more than one way for the Fed to run quantitative easing on the...
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Fed Continues on High Side of Sideways in Stimulus Since End of 2019
As I have been following, the big event in the past 4.5 months has been the Fed moving back to aggressive stimulus since the repo crisis. The printing of money to buy repos and T-bills reached a peak...
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On the Markets: Stay Skeptical
Our eyes these days are on the Fed’s balance sheet, and they’ll continue to be, as we march forward through this repo and coronavirus crisis. What we’re seeing is a slight easing back and now...
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